The 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs start tonight and the only team we can absolutely rule out is the one everyone assumed was running it back: the Florida Panthers. Two Cups in a row and the defending champs didn't even sniff the postseason.
That's where we are.
The board heading in: Colorado +310, Tampa +370, Carolina +500, Dallas +1100, Vegas +1200, Edmonton +1400, Ottawa +1600, Minnesota +1700, Buffalo +1800, Montreal +2700. Everyone else is darts.
The Avs Are the Favorite. The Avs Are Not Winning.
Colorado ran the table in the regular season: 121 points, +99 goal differential, Nathan MacKinnon leading the NHL in scoring with 127 points, Scott Wedgewood posting the best GAA among playoff starters at 2.07. On paper they're terrifying. They swept the Kings 3-0 in the season series and outscored them 13-5.
Here's the problem: the Presidents' Trophy is a curse. Only three teams have won the regular season and the Cup in the same year this millennium — the 2012-13 Blackhawks, the Red Wings (who did it twice, most recently 2007-08), and the Avs themselves in 2000-01. That's 25 years and a three-team club. Heavy is the head, and MacKinnon's head has been heavy for months.
Our Cup Pick: Dallas Stars (+1100)
This is the breakthrough year.
Three straight Western Conference Finals. Three straight heartbreaks. Fifty wins for the third year running. Second in the league in goals against. Second-best power play unit in hockey. They're deep, they're rested, they're not Colorado.
Yes, they have to claw through Minnesota and probably Colorado to escape the West — that's the entire reason the Stars are +1100 and not +500. But this roster has been engineered for this moment for three offseasons. The coach is right. The timing is right. The curse above them is real.
Carolina (+500) is the next-best live ticket. They closed 11-3-1 in their last 15 and led the league in scoring after the Olympic break. Rod Brind'Amour's teams don't get outworked. Tampa (+370) still has Kucherov and Vasilevskiy, which is historically enough to be dangerous — if they survive a tricky Round 1. Edmonton (+1400) has McDavid, Draisaitl back from injury, and an Anaheim team that limped home 2-6-2. Don't be shocked if the Oilers get back to a Final.
The Longshot Worth a Dollar: Ottawa +1600
Ottawa was the second-best team in the NHL after the Olympics — 16-5-4 in their final 25 games, top-4 in both goals for and goals against in that stretch. They dropped Carolina 6-3 in April. They're not going to win four rounds. Probably. But at +1600, the ticket is absurdly cheap and the team underneath it is legit.
The DegenSZN 3-Leg (+1012)
Three series. Two dogs. One favorite with a clear edge. Clean logic top to bottom.
Leg 1 — Edmonton Oilers to win series (-205). McDavid is McDavid. Draisaitl is back for Game 1. Anaheim closed 2-6-2 and Connor Ingram has been stable enough in net. Four or five games.
Leg 2 — Montreal Canadiens +205. The Habs finished with the same 106 points as Tampa, won the final two head-to-head matchups, and held the Lightning to one goal in each. Montreal's power play (23.4%) beats Tampa's (21.0%), and Cole Caufield is one of exactly two 50-goal scorers in the league this year. Kucherov and Vasilevskiy are still terrifying — but this is a legitimate coin flip and the dog pays plus money.
Leg 3 — Ottawa Senators +145. Already told you Ottawa was the best team in hockey post-Olympics. They get Carolina in Round 1 and already beat them 6-3 in April. Home ice matters less when you've been the better team for three straight months.
Full parlay pays +1012 on opening DraftKings odds. Stake it however you stake things.
What We Are NOT Touching
Colorado-LA. At -380 it's priced as close to a lock as a Round 1 hockey series ever gets, and we've all seen this movie — you parlay in a -380 favorite to "boost the ticket" and lose to a 2-1 overtime Game 7. Let it go. The Kings can't kill a penalty (74.7% PK, worst of any playoff team) and Darcy Kuemper would need to catch lightning in a mason jar. Colorado wins in five. Fine. We don't need the juice.
The Bottom Line
Cup pick: Dallas Stars (+1100). Longshot sprinkle: Ottawa (+1600). Round 1 parlay: Oilers / Habs / Sens, +1012.
Puck drops tonight. The curse is real. Let's go.